Jonathan D. Simon, J.D. and Ron P. Baiman, Ph.D.

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The 2004 Presidential Election: Who Won The Popular Vote? An Examination of the Comparative Validity of Exit Poll and Vote Count Data

Executive Summary: There is a substantial discrepancy—well outside the margin of error and outcomedeterminative— between the national exit poll and the popular vote count. The possible causes of the discrepancy would be random error, a skewed exit poll, or breakdown in the fairness of the voting…

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