Not the least dismaying aspect of the most recent crisis in Northern
Ireland has been the stampeding of public opinion here in the United States
into denunciation of the IRA, and into sympathy to the political maneuvers
of the British government and of the Ulster Unionist leader, David Trimble.
Naturally enough, this sudden tilt is being viewed with profound
satisfaction by the British, not to mention the Ulster Unionists, who have
chafed for years at the admirable refusal of the Clinton administration to
take dictation from the British Embassy in Washington.
Tens of thousands of high-flown words have now been devoted to the IRA's
supposed flouting of the 1998 Good Friday agreement, the IRA's lack of good
faith, and Sinn Fein's duplicity. Yet, as Britain's Secretary for Northern
Ireland, Peter Mandelson, finally admitted at the end of last week as he
returned the province to direct rule, suspending its 10-week-old coalition
government, the IRA is not in breach of that agreement, which stated that
decommissioning of IRA weapons should occur "in the context of the
implementation of the overall settlement." This was what the IRA said once
more last Friday, and its leaders may be forgiven for feeling somewhat
baffled when they got some grudging praise over the weekend for merely
reiterating what they agreed to nearly two years ago.
As a practical matter, the IRA could only have agreed to disarmament if
such a process were mutual, part of the above-mentioned "overall
settlement." Though, in fact, there has been distinct lack of such
mutuality, the IRA has indeed honored its commitment to peace, ensuring the
longest period of tranquility in Northern Ireland.
Despite this tranquility, the capacity for organized violence remains
overwhelmingly with the Unionists and with the British. Just visit south
Armagh, where IRA units are being asked to turn in their weapons. British
forts dot the hillsides. British patrols still deploy. British helicopters
fill the sky. The Royal Ulster Constabulary is still a standing, unreformed
force with an awful history still vivid in Catholic minds. There has been
abundant testimony that RUC officers were implicated in assassinations and
bombings of Catholics, and in conspiracies with other Protestant terror
groups. Last week, Ulster Unionists were insisting that the RUC never be
disbanded and its name survive.
On one well-informed count last year, there were about 130,000 legal guns
in the north, 90 percent of them in the hands of RUC and the British army.
What army with the function of guaranteeing the safety of Catholic
communities in the north -- which is what the IRA deems itself to be --
could blithely lay down its arms amid these conditions? More precisely, what
IRA commander could order such a course without facing the likelihood of
mutinous dissent? In the view of many Republicans, only a beaten army
unilaterally lays down its guns, and only an antagonist acting in bad faith
would try to force the decommissioning issue at this time. There is no
reason to believe that when Trimble accepted his slice of the Nobel peace
prize, he traded in his instincts and outlook as a Unionist, leader of a
party adamantly opposed to power-sharing or anything other than absolute
Protestant dominance. The truth is that history dragged Trimble to the
negotiating table, and forced him to accept the coalition cabinet with its
two Sinn Fein members.
After as short a time as 10 peaceful weeks Trimble found this situation
intolerable. His sudden confection of a previously non-existent
decommissioning "deadline" overstepped by the IRA was a maneuver to destroy
the coalition, and in this tactic, he was backed by Mandelson and Blair, who
lost all room for maneuver by making it known that they were entirely in
Trimble's corner. Worse still, Mandelson chose to suspend the new coalition
government in Northern Ireland, and restore direct rule, even though he was
well aware that Gen. John de Chastelain, the former Canadian officer heading
the international disarmament body, was about to report that he was
confident of the IRA's good faith. There are some signs that the British
realized they had overreacted on Trimble's behalf. Some vague noises were
duly made about the possible withdrawal of some British forces. When the
British did finally suspend the new power-sharing institutions at the end of
last week, they began to downplay the significance of the whole affair,
insisting that suspension was not necessarily an epochal event.
If the British government wanted to settle the decommissioning issue once
and for all, it would propose that the RUC be abolished in favor of a
recomposed police force that would be evenly divided between Catholics and
Protestants. Fifty percent of such a force could include decommissioned IRA
volunteers. That's actual reconciliation, beyond the level of high-flown
speeches at Nobel prize-givings. The announcement of such a force would then
be the green light for the IRA to decommission on a grand scale. Exactly
this process happened in several decolonizations -- India, Kenya,
Zimbabwe -- pushed through by Britain. Today, members of the ANC's armed
wing have been recruited into the South African army in large numbers.
One can understand the British dilemma. Blair and Mandelson no doubt feel
that if Trimble goes, there'll be no Unionist they can deal with. So, once
again, Trimble holds the old, ever-familiar Ulster veto. There's no reason
why the United States should be suckered into playing along with this veto,
too.
To find out more about Alexander Cockburn and read features by other
columnists and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate web page at
www.creators.com.
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